AMD's AI forecast stole the session
The real story from Wednesday, May 6, wasn't just another broad market melt-up. It was the scale of the semiconductor bid after Reuters reported that Advanced Micro Devices surged almost 19% after issuing a stronger-than-expected second-quarter revenue forecast tied to data-center chip demand. That move helped drag the entire chip complex higher, with Intel up 4.5% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index up 4.5%.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.46% to 7,365.09, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.03% to 25,838.94, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 612.34 points, or 1.24%, to 49,910.59, according to Reuters and CNBC. Volume was heavy at 18.8 billion shares, well above the recent 20-session average of 17.6 billion, a sign traders were chasing rather than fading the move.
Records in the indexes, but leadership was narrow and aggressive
This was a classic high-beta session. The Nasdaq outperformed because traders piled back into AI infrastructure, chip design and data-center names. CNBC said the VanEck Semiconductor ETF jumped 5%, while AMD alone added 18.6% after beating on both revenue and earnings and guiding higher.
There were other notable movers. Hut 8 jumped 35% after signing a 15-year, $9.8 billion lease tied to its Beacon Point data-center campus in Texas, according to Reuters. Disney rose sharply after earnings, with investor focus on better-than-expected results and improving streaming and parks trends, while Uber gained more than 7% to 8% after forecasting second-quarter bookings above Wall Street expectations despite pressure from the Middle East conflict, according to CNBC and Reuters. For traders, the takeaway is simple: leadership remains concentrated in companies tied to AI spending or resilient consumer demand.
Treasury yields eased as inflation fears cooled
Bond markets backed the equity rally. The Treasury's official daily curve showed the 2-year yield at 3.91%, the 10-year at 4.15%, and the 30-year at 4.82% for May 6, down from 3.93%, 4.18%, and 4.86% respectively on May 5, according to the U.S. Treasury. That's not a dramatic collapse in rates, but it was enough to reinforce the idea that easing energy prices could give the Fed more breathing room.
The policy backdrop is still a hold, not a cut. Markets are trading the idea that lower crude reduces the immediate inflation threat rather than signaling a sudden dovish turn from the Fed. Wednesday's move in yields looked more like a repricing of energy risk than a wholesale change in the rate path. That matters because growth stocks have been getting support from both earnings and a modest retreat in long-end yields.
Oil dropped below $100, while gold moved higher anyway
Crude stayed central to the macro tape even if it shouldn't be the lead angle today. Reuters reported that Brent crude fell $1.95, or 1.93%, to $99.32 a barrel on Thursday morning, while West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.93, or 2.03%, to $93.15, extending Wednesday's slide of more than 7% on hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold didn't follow the usual script. Spot and futures prices remained elevated above $4,700 an ounce on Thursday, according to Forbes Advisor and Trading Economics. That tells you traders still want geopolitical insurance even as they price lower energy stress. In other words, the market is getting a rare mix of risk-on equities, softer oil and still-firm haven demand.
Labor data was decent, not hot, and that helped risk assets
The macro data didn't get in the way. ADP said private employers added 109,000 jobs in April, with annual pay growth at 4.4%, according to the ADP National Employment Report. That was firm enough to suggest the economy is still expanding, but not so hot that it would immediately reignite fears of a more hawkish Fed.
That puts extra pressure on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Traders will be looking to see whether ADP overstated underlying labor strength or whether payrolls confirm that the U.S. economy is still running at a decent clip despite geopolitical stress, tighter financial conditions and an uneven hiring backdrop. A soft but not weak payroll number would probably keep the current equity narrative intact.
Crypto stayed constructive as risk appetite improved
Crypto wasn't the main event, but it moved in the right direction for bulls. Bitcoin traded around $81,300 to $82,500 across widely followed market updates on Wednesday and Thursday, with Ethereum's market value still far behind but benefiting from the same improvement in risk sentiment, according to Fortune, Charles Schwab and CoinDesk.
The useful signal here is correlation. Bitcoin held above $80,000 while semis ripped and oil fell, which suggests traders are treating crypto as part of the broader risk complex again, not as a defensive asset. If yields stay contained and payrolls don't surprise to the upside, that support could hold into the end of the week.
Geopolitics still matters, but the market is trading progress, not resolution
The geopolitical driver remains the same: markets are reacting to signs that Washington and Tehran are edging toward a limited agreement to halt the fighting. Reuters said Iran was reviewing a new U.S. proposal, while a separate Reuters report on Thursday said oil extended losses on renewed hopes for a deal that could gradually reopen Hormuz.
But traders should be careful. Even CNBC noted that President Donald Trump later warned a deal was not certain, and equity indexes came off their intraday highs after those comments. So the market is pricing de-escalation, not certainty. Any setback in talks could hit crude, yields and high-beta equities all at once.
What to Watch Today
- Weekly U.S. jobless claims and productivity data for a read on whether labor market cooling is continuing ahead of Friday payrolls, with the BLS release calendar as the key reference point.
- Any fresh headlines on U.S.-Iran negotiations and the status of the Strait of Hormuz after Reuters reported Brent had slipped below $100.
- Post-earnings reactions in Arm, Disney and Uber, especially whether the AI trade broadens beyond AMD and whether consumer-facing names can keep catching bids.
- Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year around 4.15%, for confirmation that falling energy prices are still easing inflation expectations rather than just reflecting a temporary geopolitical headline.
- Friday's April nonfarm payrolls report, which remains the week's biggest macro catalyst after ADP's 109,000 private payroll gain, according to ADP.